Rent debt across Minnesota during Operation Metro Surge | Center for Urban & Regional Affairs

Rent debt across Minnesota during Operation Metro Surge

Nick Graetz

Department of Sociology, University of Minnesota

Yusra Murad

Health Policy and Management, University of Minnesota

In 2025, average monthly rent debt among low-income households in Minnesota was $22.3 million. This is about ten times greater than the monthly budget for statewide rental assistance ($2.3 million).
Under different scenarios regarding the proportion of immigrant households who missed rent payments in January and February 2026 as a consequence of Operation Metro Surge, we estimate that total excess rent debt across Minnesota since the beginning of Operation Metro Surge is $27.4 - 51.3 million. This is on top of the $44.6 million rent debt typically expected during any two-month period in the state.
These figures do not account for the months of March 2026 and beyond; the burden of excess rent debt on immigrant renters is expected to grow significantly over time.

Since the beginning of Operation Metro Surge on Dec. 4, 2025, thousands of Minnesotans have lost income. Many have been forced to miss work because it is not safe to commute or remain on-site due to ICE activity, while others have lost hours or seen working members of the household detained or deported. Immigrant households in Minnesota are already disproportionately exposed to unaffordable housing. Compared with similar non-immigrant households, immigrant households have lower incomes yet higher rents; 71% of immigrant households making less than $75,000 are rent burdened, spending greater than 30% of income on rent. This has created an escalating and emergent crisis situation for immigrant families across the state who are now facing the threat of eviction following missed rent payments in January and February 2026.

Prior to Operation Metro Surge, statewide rent debt – the total amount of unpaid rent that households collectively owe at a given time – was already very high. In a typical month, low-income households have rent debts of $22.3 million across Minnesota. This is around ten times higher than the monthly budget for statewide emergency rental assistance, which is roughly $2.3 million.

Economic and political shocks trigger additional, or excess, statewide rent debt. Under simple projections about increases in rent debt among low-income immigrant households since the onset of Operation Metro Surge in December 2025, we estimate that statewide rent debt as of February 2026 is $27.4 - 51.3 million in excess of average statewide rent debt of $44.6 million expected during any two-month period.

Figure 1. Projected total excess rent debt since the beginning of Operation Metro Surge given different scenarios about the proportion of immigrant households behind on rent in January and February 2026.

Note: To estimate excess rent debt associated with Operation Metro Surge, we used three criteria to identify households at high risk of missing rent payments due to ICE presence: households who 1) have any foreign-born residents, 2) receive income via employment versus public assistance, and 3) have total household incomes under $75,000. Estimates of excess rent debt are based on different projections of the proportion of these households at least one month behind on rent by February 2026. Estimates of baseline rent debt are based on an average of 7% of all households under $50,000 being one month behind on rent in any given month. See Methodology for more details.

It is important to note that these projections of excess rent debt likely underestimate the total impact of Operation Metro Surge on emergency rent needs. Our estimates only project direct need among households with income below $75,000 with at least one immigrant resident. For comparison, the City of Minneapolis estimated monthly rent debts of $15.7 million, assuming that the 42% of foreign-born households where individuals reported limited English proficiency have lost the income they need to pay rent. There have also likely been significant spillover effects to individuals who may not be directly vulnerable to targeting by ICE but who have still lost income during Operation Metro Surge; for example, service workers in businesses that have had to change hours of operation or close altogether. Estimating rent debt attributable to Operation Metro Surge is further complicated because immigrant households may face disproportionately high rates of informal evictions and living situations which are not captured by formal data sources typically used to estimate eviction risk and need for rental assistance. Data from two major hotlines which serve as a front-door for renters seeking housing assistance and legal support suggest significant surges in callers seeking rent relief. In January, Greater Twin Cities United Way (211) reported a greater than three-fold increase in calls requesting rent assistance compared to the weekly average the previous quarter. The 211 Spanish-language line saw a 1,646 percent spike in calls. HOME Line reported a 72 percent increase in calls regarding financial aid between December and January, compared to the same window in 2025.

Conclusion

In January and February 2026, community organizations, neighborhood associations, labor unions, public school communities, individual neighbors and nonprofits raised and distributed millions of dollars in rent relief. These funds, combined with an emergency push from city-level programs, have supported thousands of households in narrowly avoiding the immediate risk of eviction.

Still, these efforts must be considered in the context of the immense scale of the need: families at direct risk during Operation Metro Surge are facing an excess rent debt of between $27.4 - $51.3 million, on top of the statewide rent debt of $44.6 million across the entire renter population expected during any two-month period. These figures do not account for the months of March 2026 and beyond. As affected families continue navigating the risk of leaving home to go to work, and contend with the compounding financial pressures following over two months of sheltering in place, the burden of unpaid housing costs and shortage of emergency rental assistance on these renters is expected to grow significantly over time.

Methodology

In a 2024 report, MN Housing estimated that the annual funding to meet emergency rental assistance needs was $350 million. Using waves of data from the 2024 Household Pulse Survey (which has since been discontinued), they find that households under $50,000 have 250,000 months of rent debt annually. Dividing this by the number of renter households under $50,000 across the state (roughly 300,000) and dividing by 12 yields an estimate that the average renter household under $50,000 is 0.07 months behind on rent in any given month. In other words, if this was evenly distributed over households, this would imply that 7% of these households are one month behind on rent during a typical month.

We downloaded household microdata from the 2024 1-Year ACS PUMS accessed via IPUMS. We adjusted gross rents and household incomes for inflation, converting to 2025 dollars. We calculated total baseline monthly rent debt across Minnesota for December 2025 assuming that 7% of all households below $50,000 were one month behind on rent; these baseline monthly estimates are analogous to the MN Housing report.

To estimate excess rent debt associated with Operation Metro Surge, we used three criteria to identify households at high risk of missing rent payments due to ICE presence: households who 1) have any foreign-born residents, 2) rely on income via employment rather than public assistance, and 3) have total household incomes under $75,000. We calculated projected monthly rent debt among this population assuming the rate of households one month behind on rent increased linearly from 7% in December 2025 to either 30%, 40%, or 50% in February 2026. For example, our “30% scenario” is based on 7% of affected households being behind on rent in December 2025, 18.5% behind in January 2026, and 30% behind in February 2026 (see Figure 2 below). We then calculated “excess” monthly rent debt among these directly affected households by subtracting their background monthly rent debt based on the average rate of 7%.

Our projected range of 30-50% of affected renters one month behind on rent by February 2026 is based on several data points. The City of Minneapolis estimated monthly rent debts of $15.7 million assuming that the 42% of foreign-born households where individuals reported limited English proficiency have missed the income they needed to pay rent. On one hand, conditions leading to lost income and missed rent payments may be less severe throughout the rest of the state, which is why we consider the 30% scenario. A rate of 30% is also close to rent debt during the COVID-19 pandemic reported in the October 2021 Household Pulse Survey, where 21% of Latinx households and 25% of Black households were behind on rent. On the other hand, we consider the 50% scenario to be based on various indicators of emergency rent need that have increased to unprecedented levels during Operation Metro Surge. For example, in the week of January 26, 2026, Greater Twin Cities United Way (211) received 6,435 calls, of which 3,367 were housing requests and 2,084 were rental assistance requests – both substantially above Q4 2025 levels (+59% and +118%, respectively). The 211 Spanish-language line has seen a 15-fold increase. In January, HOMELINE reported a 72% increase in requests for financial assistance compared to the same period in 2025, outpacing call volume during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Figure 2. Projected total excess rent debt since the beginning of Operation Metro Surge given different scenarios about the proportion of immigrant households behind on rent in January and February 2026, stratified by month.

Note: To estimate excess rent debt associated with Operation Metro Surge, we used three criteria to identify households at high risk of missing rent payments due to ICE presence: households who 1) have any foreign-born residents, 2) receive income via employment versus public assistance, and 3) have total household incomes under $75,000. Estimates of excess rent debt are based on different projections of the proportion of these households at least one month behind on rent by February 2026. Estimates of baseline rent debt are based on an average of 7% of all households under $50,000 being one month behind on rent in any given month. See Methodology for more details.