Authors
Kenton Card, Evan Davis, Edward Goetz
Center for Urban and Regional Affairs, University of Minnesota
Jeremy Schwartz
Sellinger School of Business and Management, Loyola University Maryland
Abstract
Do Good Cause eviction protections reduce the rate of housing production? Our preliminary analysis suggests not; housing production in California, Oregon, and New Hampshire did not decline after passage of Good or Just Cause relative to nearby states without the legislation. Across the USA, state legislatures are considering legislation that requires landlords to document “Good Cause” when evicting renters. Stakeholders make contrasting claims about the potential impact of the policy. In support, tenant advocates argue that it helps families stay in their homes amidst a housing affordability and homelessness crisis. In opposition, landlord lobbyists suggest that Good Cause will disincentivize developers from building new multifamily rental housing and lead to a decline in housing supply, and, thus, exacerbate the housing crisis. We set out to investigate the existing empirical research, and, subsequently, identified a gap across the fields of housing economics and policy studies on the impact of Good Cause on housing markets. We gathered data from three states – California, Oregon, and New Hampshire – where “Good” or “Just Cause” laws passed over the last decade. We conducted a difference-in-difference analysis on whether the trend in new permits at the county-level in states subject to the passage of Good Cause were different from the trends in nearby counties in states not subject to the law. The model controlled for other factors: county-level GDP, population, unemployment and per capita income. We found that permits did not decline in California, Oregon, or New Hampshire counties relative to the changes occurring in surrounding states, ceteris paribus. Building on existing research that suggests that Good Cause will keep families in their homes because it results in lower rates of evictions and displacement, our findings suggest that passing Good Cause eviction protections will not result in reduced rates of new housing production or, subsequently, housing supply.
